Rate Lock Advisory

Thursday, October 20th

Thursday’s bond market has opened fairly flat with stocks calm and no significant surprises in this morning’s economic data. The major stock indexes are showing modest losses of 5 points in the Dow and 10 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently up 1/32 (1.74%), which should keep this morning’s mortgage rates at yesterday’s early levels.

1/32


Bonds


30 yr - 1.74%

5


Dow


18,197

10


NASDAQ


5,235

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

Medium


Neutral


Fed Beige Book

Yesterday afternoon’s release of the Fed Beige Book did not give us anything to be concerned or excited about. It showed that the economic activity strengthened modestly or moderately in most Fed regions between late August and early this month. This was expected and did not differ much from the previous update. Therefore, it had little impact on the bond and mortgage markets late yesterday.

Low


Positive


Weekly Unemployment Claims (every Thursday)

The first of this morning’s three pieces of economic data was last week’s unemployment figures at 8:30 AM ET. They showed that 260,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was higher than the 249,000 that was expected and an increase from the previous week’s revised total of 247,000 initial filings. The increase is good news for bonds and mortgage rates because it points towards a weakening employment sector. However, since this is only a weekly snapshot, it did not cause much movement in the markets.

Medium


Negative


Existing Home Sales from National Assoc of Realtors

September's Existing Home Sales report was posted at 10:00 AM ET this morning. The National Association of Realtors announced a 3.2% increase in home resales last month. This was stronger than expected, indicating a strengthening housing market. That makes the data slightly negative for bonds and mortgage rates.

Low


Neutral


Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) from the Conference Board

The final release of the week was September's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) from the Conference Board at 10:00 AM. The release revealed a 0.2% increase in the indicators, matching expectations. The rise means the indicators are predicting modest economic growth over the next several months. This is considered to be a minor piece of data, so it has not had an influence on today’s trading or mortgage pricing.

Low


Unknown


None

Tomorrow has nothing of importance scheduled except for a couple of Fed member speaking engagements. Unless they say something totally unexpected or stocks make a significant move upward or downward, I suspect the day will be calm for mortgage rates.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.